What the hell, let’s actually talk about some politics on here for a moment. I had a phone conversation with a conservative yesterday who believes Republican state Rep. Jill Chambers might actually be in trouble in her district against former DPG employee and blogger Chris Huttman.
I was (and still am) incredulous. We’ve seen Chambers dispatch a long line of challengers of varying competence and intelligence with relative ease against what seem like unfavorable demographics. She’s smart and tough, and plays politics Ty Cobb-style, with cleats out. She also breaks from party dogma often enough to make her ideological positions more palatable to her constituency. It’s tough to argue that a Democrat could accomplish more for that district in an all-Republican legislature.
What was said conservative’s reasoning? That Chambers was too close to Speaker Glenn Richardson, and that there will be fallout from aligning with him.
Richardson, as you probably know already, is largely viewed as responsible for the acrimony that has ground state government to a halt the past two years. I’d venture to say a state House candidate being associated with him is worth about as much as a U.S. House candidate being associated with George W. Bush. Which is to say nothing positive could come from it.
For good measure, we should also throw in the Obama candidacy will hurt metro Atlanta Republicans theory. The theory goes that Obama being the candidate would increase turnout among black voters, gay voters and urban liberals. Given that Obama took the Georgia primary by a landslide, and given that some polls have said the supporters of one candidate may have trouble voting for the other candidate, this theory may have some merit to it.
Could the combination of all these factors give Huttman a chance against Chambers?
Chris is a reader and comments on here from time-to-time, and I’m sure he’s got the demographics all worked out. I’d also love to hear from Rep. Chambers if she reads this. And from everyone else. What say you?
Demographically the district hasn’t changed too much. It remains a very competitive district for Democratic and Republican candidates (Kerry won it, so did Perdue, so did Martin, so did Oxendine etc). I believe if you look at the past races and the amount spent on one side vs the other you’ll see some of the story and that should be equalized this year. Thanks for the mention, Rusty.
I live in Chambers’ district, and have closely followed her past two elections. She has never had a strong challenger. It remains to be seen if Huttman is any stronger than her previous opponents for the seat.
I do think that at this point, it would be hard for even a strong Democrat to beat Jill. She is an extremely high-profile member of the state house, has a reputation as a level-headed moderate, and is very connected to the local political scene. There are only two things I see that could possibly hurt her in November: voters in Dunwoody who are angry that she was not a big supporter of city-hood (this may win her just as many votes); and a possible Obama candidacy which may bring out a larger-than-normal Democratic electorate.
I’m interested to see what a race between Chambers and Huttman will look like. She will definitely be scouring his online record for any choice quotes which can be sensationalized in a mailer. I know Chris is very certain this is a race he can win. He has been following Chambers’ rise to power much closer than I have. It’ll be interesting to see what aspects of Jill’s record Chris will attack.
Of course, I’m curious about all this now — but at some point in October, I think I’m going to be very tired of the whole thing. Time will tell.
So, who’s Cecillia Hailey? And how does HardcoreChris plan to win his primary? I think there’s plenty of politics to be watched before the general.
She apparently has problems handling money.
Yes…politics back on RGM!